| on 23-05-2008 12:21
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Published in : , Music |
By Stephen Adams for telegraph.co.uk Western European countries like the UK and Ireland - which in the past did well in the music contest - are being marginalised by their new-found power, the study indicates. The blocs tend to be voting in a more "clubby” way than before, leaving countries like the UK with little chance of winning, according to Dr Derek Gatherer, a data analyst from Glasgow. He said three blocs now had such a significant effect on voting that our prospects of victory had diminished over the last decade The biggest is the "Balkan Bloc", consisting of 11 countries including Turkey, Bulgaria and Hungary. Next is the "Eastern Bloc" of eight countries including Russia, Poland and Ukraine. The final big bloc is the "Viking Empire" of eight Nordic countries. All tend to give their neighbours higher votes than other countries, according to Dr Gatherer's paper, Comparison of Eurovision Song Contest Simulation with Actual Results Reveals Shifting Patterns of Collusive Voting Alliances. He said: "Statistically it is significant. Countries are exchanging votes with each other." He found vote-swapping has grown over the last 10 years and now only seven of 43 countries can be proved to be 'clean'. Now about a third of votes come from bloc-voting, he concluded. Despite a strong song and a proven voice, this year's UK's entrant, former X-Factor runner-up Andy Abraham, was sanguine about his chances of winning. He said: "I believe the song is good enough for a top ten. Anything more than that...well, if I win, I'll probably collapse on the floor." The contest is broadcast from Belgrade in Serbia this Saturday night. - The Balkan Bloc: Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Turkey, Albania, Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Hungary.
- The Eastern Bloc: Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Poland, Belarus, Moldova and Romania.
- The Viking Empire: Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
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